Every World Cup produces a surprise. In 2022 it was Morocco, who reached the semi-finals and changed what people thought African football could do. In 2026 there were shocks too, with Norway and Paraguay upsetting far bigger names. The 2030 World Cup will have its own dark horses — and the expanded 48-team format gives outsiders more chances than ever.

A dark horse is not just a small team. It is a team with the talent and organisation to beat the favourites, but without the expectation that comes with being one. Here are the outsiders with the best chance of shocking the tournament in 2030.

Morocco are hosts, so calling them dark horses may seem odd — but many still underestimate them. They reached the semi-finals in 2022, they play at home in 2030, and their squad is full of players at top European clubs. If they reach the final, it will still be described as a shock, which tells you how little credit they get.

The best way to spot a dark horse before the tournament is to watch the qualifying campaigns. Look for teams that are defensively solid, hard to beat away from home, and improving year on year. Check their squads: are the key players getting regular minutes at good European clubs? Are they settled under one manager? And look at their recent tournament record: teams that reach the knockouts consistently are far more likely to make a deep run than teams that flame out in the groups. By 2029, the smart money will have a shortlist — and the names on it may surprise you.