No country produces talent like Brazil: every year dozens of young Brazilians arrive at Europe's biggest clubs, and the national team can field eleven stars in every match. Yet the last world title dates back to 2002, almost thirty years ago, and the most recent campaigns have ended with painful quarter-final eliminations. In 2030 the question will be the same as always: Brazil have the strongest players, but do they have a team that can win a World Cup? The answer will only come on the pitch, but the signs from the academies and the European clubs are encouraging.

Talent is not enough

Brazil's problem is a paradox: too much individual talent and too little collective organisation. The Seleção have often fielded four or five attackers together, leaving the midfield exposed and the defence unprotected, and against the big European sides that imbalance has cost them dearly. In 2030 the manager will need the courage to leave a star on the bench in order to build a real balance.

The lesson of the last World Cups is clear: compact teams win, not collections of stars. Brazil must learn to defend with eleven players, to manage difficult moments and to win the ugly matches too. Their attacking talent remains their greatest strength, but it must serve a game plan rather than being left free to improvise.

The new Brazilian generation

The new generation may be the most talented since 2002: fast, technical attackers, complete midfielders and modern defenders who are comfortable with the ball. Many of them will be at the peak of their careers in 2030, with Champions League experience and seasons in the big leagues behind them. There is quality in every department, and the depth of the squad allows the manager to change matches from the bench.

The question mark is the centre-forward: Brazil have produced great wingers and number tens, but they struggle to find a complete number nine, strong physically and clinical in front of goal. In 2030 the solution could be a modern, mobile striker involved in the build-up, or a false nine with the wingers running beyond. The choice of striker will decide much of the Seleção's fate.

The manager and the difficult choices

The Brazil manager's job is the hardest in the world: he must manage the stars, resist the pressure of the press and the fans, and make unpopular decisions. In 2030 Brazil will need a coach with absolute authority, able to impose tactical discipline on players used to freedom at their clubs. History says Brazil win when the coach is truly in charge.

The difficult choices will be about balance: how many attackers to field, who to sacrifice to give the midfield solidity, and how to manage stars who do not accept the bench. A coach who can say no to the most famous names for the good of the team will already have won half the tournament, because Brazil have lost more through ego than through quality.

The road and the rivals

The South American qualifiers are the toughest route in the world, and Brazil will use them to build the 2030 team, testing youngsters and systems. At the tournament, the Seleção will start among the favourites and will have to face the big European sides from the quarter-finals onwards: Spain, France, England and Argentina are the rivals Brazil must beat to return to the final.

The draw will matter, but Brazil cannot hide behind the calendar: to win a sixth title they must beat the best, in any order. The 2030 tournament will be the moment of truth for an extraordinary generation: either the talent finally becomes a team, or the world title drought will reach twenty-eight years.

Brazil have the talent to win World Cup 2030, but talent alone has not been enough for almost thirty years. If the new generation accept becoming a real team, with balance and discipline, the sixth star is possible and the drought will end. Otherwise it will be another tournament of regrets.