Italy are back in playoff purgatory. The four-time world champions, who finished as runners-up in their qualifying group, must win a do-or-die playoff bracket in March 2026 to reach the World Cup, starting with a single-leg semifinal against Northern Ireland in Path A. Win that, and a final against Wales or Bosnia-Herzegovina awaits for a place at the expanded 48-team tournament.

The stakes could hardly be higher for the Azzurri. Italy have missed the last two World Cups after playoff heartbreak, and another failure would be unthinkable for a nation that won the European Championship in 2021. The playoff draw has given them a theoretically manageable path, with fans already touting them as favourites to emerge from Path A, but the single-game format leaves no room for an off night.

The UEFA playoffs bring together 16 teams across four paths: the 12 group runners-up plus four sides that qualified via the Nations League rankings. Slovakia, Kosovo, Denmark, Ukraine, Turkey, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Wales, Albania and Czechia all finished second in their groups, joined by Romania, Sweden, Northern Ireland and North Macedonia through the Nations League route.

Poland and Turkey, along with Denmark, are being tipped alongside Italy as the likeliest survivors thanks to their squad depth and qualifying form. But the playoffs are a graveyard for favourites: each path features two semifinals and a final, all single-leg knockout ties, meaning one bad evening can end a campaign. Underdogs like North Macedonia, famous for playoff heroics in recent cycles, are built for exactly this kind of chaos.

The semifinals are projected for March 26, 2026, with the four path finals on March 31. The four winners will complete Europe's 16-team contingent at the finals, joining already-qualified nations like England and France. For England, the job is already done, but for Italy and company, March will be the most stressful month in football.

If the Azzurri navigate the bracket, they will arrive in North America with a point to prove and a squad rebuilt around a new generation. The pressure on the veterans of European football's old guard has rarely been greater, and Italy's playoff run may yet define the narrative of the road to 2026.