The 2026 World Cup was supposed to be a coronation for the favourites. Instead, the expanded 48-team tournament produced one of the most chaotic knockout stages in the competition's history, with giants falling to nations ranked far below them and underdogs reaching quarter-finals for the first time. No dark horse reached the semi-finals, but the shocks along the way defined the tournament as much as the final did.

1. Norway 2-1 Brazil: the biggest shock of all

Norway, ranked 31st in the world and given just 2% title odds, beat five-time champions Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16. Brazil had arrived as third favourites at 11% and were chasing a sixth star under Carlo Ancelotti. Erling Haaland scored twice, including a dramatic late winner, and Norway's disciplined defence held on to complete the most eye-catching scalp of the tournament. It was Norway's deepest ever run at a World Cup, and it ended Brazil's campaign in a single evening.

2. Paraguay knock out Germany on penalties

Germany, ranked tenth and backed at 8% to win the tournament, were eliminated in the Round of 32 by Paraguay, ranked 40th. The match finished 1-1 and Paraguay won the shootout 4-3, a result widely described as the tournament's biggest single shock by ranking gap. Germany had won their group on six points and looked comfortable; Paraguay, organised and fearless, simply refused to lose. It was the defining upset of the early knockout rounds.

3. Morocco end the Netherlands on penalties

The Netherlands had cruised through their group with seven points and a plus-six goal difference, yet they could not break Morocco down, drew 1-1 and lost the shootout 3-2. Morocco, ranked eighth and semi-finalists in 2022, were arguably too good to count as a true upset, but the result still ended a genuine contender's tournament in the Round of 32. Morocco then thrashed Canada 3-0 to reach the quarter-finals, becoming the first African nation to reach the last eight twice.

4. Cape Verde push Argentina to the limit

Cape Verde, the smallest nation ever to qualify and ranked 69th, held eventual champions Spain to a goalless draw in the group stage and then pushed Argentina to a 3-2 extra-time defeat in the Round of 32. Their 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha made 18 saves across the two games against Spain and Argentina and became a global sensation. Cape Verde did not win the tie, but they proved the expanded format had given football's smallest nations a real stage.

5. Switzerland's quiet march to the quarter-finals

Switzerland were the tournament's quiet overachievers. Ranked 19th and given 1% title odds, they won their group with seven points, beat Algeria 2-0 in the Round of 32, edged Colombia on penalties in the Round of 16 and took Argentina to the brink in a 1-1 quarter-final before the champions prevailed. Alongside Norway and Morocco, they made it three outsiders in the last eight, a tally the 32-team format had rarely produced.

The upsets of World Cup 2026 shared a pattern: organised, disciplined outsiders against favourites who expected to win by reputation. Norway, Paraguay, Morocco, Cape Verde and Switzerland all proved that the 48-team format had not diluted the tournament, it had democratised it. The favourites still won in the end, but they had to earn it.

The lesson of the 2026 upsets is not that the favourites were weak, but that the gap between the top ten and the rest of the world has narrowed. Norway, Paraguay, Morocco, Cape Verde and Switzerland all arrived with a clear plan, a settled defence and the belief that one good evening could change their history. The 48-team format gave them the chance, and they took it, which is exactly what an expanded World Cup was supposed to do.