Every World Cup has a dark horse, a team nobody expects to go far that ends up in the quarter-finals or beyond. In 2022 it was Morocco, who reached the semi-finals. In 2026, with 48 teams and a kinder format, there are more dark horses than ever. Here are the four teams with the best chance of shocking the world.

A dark horse is not a bad team that gets lucky. It is a good team that the public has underrated, with real quality, a kind draw, and a star player who can decide games. Norway, Morocco, Japan and Colombia all fit that description.

Norway: Haaland changes everything

Norway are the most exciting dark horse of the tournament. Erling Haaland is the most dangerous striker in the world, and he scored 16 goals in qualifying, more than anyone else in Europe. With Martin Odegaard creating chances behind him, Norway can score against any defence in the world.

The Norwegians won all eight qualifying matches, including two wins over Italy, and they are in Group I with France, Senegal and Iraq. It is a tough group, but Norway only need to finish second, or even third, to reach the Round of 32. Once there, with Haaland on the pitch, they can beat anyone.

The bookmakers have Norway at long odds to win the tournament, around 45/1, but much shorter to reach the quarter-finals. If Haaland stays fit and the defence holds, Norway could be the story of the World Cup.

Morocco: proven at the highest level

Morocco are not really a dark horse anymore, because everyone saw what they did in 2022. The Atlas Lions reached the semi-finals in Qatar, beating Belgium, Spain and Portugal along the way, and they have only got better since. They won all their qualifying games and reached the Africa Cup of Nations final.

The strength of Morocco is the defence and the team spirit. Achraf Hakimi is one of the best full-backs in the world, the midfield is physical and technical, and the team defends as a unit. Morocco are in Group C with Brazil, Scotland and Haiti, and they should finish second at worst.

At around 30/1 to win the tournament, Morocco offer genuine value. They have already shown they can beat the best teams in the world, and in a knockout game, with their organisation and counter-attacking speed, they are a nightmare to play against.

Japan: Asia's best team

Japan are the strongest Asian team at the World Cup, and they have a habit of upsetting giants. In 2022 they beat both Germany and Spain in the group stage, and since then they have only improved. They conceded just three goals in 16 qualifying matches, and they beat England 1-0 in a friendly at Wembley.

The Japanese are fast, technical and incredibly well organised. They press high, move the ball quickly, and never give up. They are in Group F with the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia, a group they can win, and if they do, they will face a beatable opponent in the Round of 32.

Japan are priced at long odds to win the tournament, but they are one of the best bets to reach the quarter-finals. They have the squad, the system and the belief to go further than anyone expects.

Colombia and the rest

Colombia are the fourth dark horse. The South Americans finished third in qualifying, beating both Brazil and Argentina, and they have a deep squad led by Luis Diaz. They are physical, direct and dangerous from set pieces, and in a knockout game, they can beat anyone.

Other teams to watch include the USA, who have home advantage and a young squad, and Türkiye, who have a talented generation and a kind group. Croatia, finalists in 2018 and third in 2022, are always dangerous in tournaments, even if their squad is ageing.

The expanded format helps the dark horses. With 12 groups and eight best third-placed teams going through, a dark horse only needs one good result to reach the knockouts. From there, one upset win can take them to the quarter-finals, and that is when the whole world starts to believe.