Group D is the hosts' group. The United States, as co-hosts, lead a group with Türkiye, Australia and Paraguay, and the Americans have a genuine chance of topping it. It is one of the most open groups in the tournament: all four teams can beat each other, and the race for second place could go down to the final day.

The USA play their group games in front of home crowds, with the support of a nation that is slowly falling in love with soccer. Türkiye are the dark horses, Australia are the reliable tournament team, and Paraguay are the spoilers. Here is the full preview.

USA: home advantage

The United States have never had a better chance to make a deep run at a World Cup. As co-hosts, they play in front of huge home crowds, they know the stadiums, the climate and the travel, and they have a young, talented squad led by Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie.

Pulisic, now starring in Serie A, is the creative heart of the team. McKennie brings energy and goals from midfield, and the defence is organised and physical. The USA are ranked 16th in the world, but at home, with the crowd behind them, they play like a top-ten team.

The group is winnable. The USA should beat Paraguay and Australia, and a draw against Türkiye would be enough to top the group. The danger is complacency: the Americans have a history of underperforming at World Cups, and the pressure of playing at home can be a burden as well as a boost.

Türkiye and Australia

Türkiye are the most dangerous team in the group after the USA. The Turks have a young, technical squad, with players in the Bundesliga, Serie A and the Premier League. They qualified with a strong campaign and play an attacking, high-pressing game that can trouble anyone. If they beat Australia on matchday one, they will be favourites for second place.

Australia, the Socceroos, are the most reliable team in the group. They have qualified for every World Cup since 2006, they are organised, physical and hard to beat, and they have a history of upsetting bigger teams. The Australians will make every game a battle, and in a group this tight, that could be enough to qualify.

The match between Türkiye and Australia, on matchday one, could decide second place. The winner will have a huge advantage, the loser will be under pressure for the rest of the group. Expect a tight, tense game with few goals.

Paraguay: the spoilers

Paraguay are the least fancied team in the group, but they are dangerous. The Paraguayans are physical, organised and excellent at set pieces, and they have a history of frustrating bigger teams. In qualifying, they beat Brazil and drew with Argentina, and they arrive at the World Cup with nothing to lose.

For Paraguay, the key game is against Australia. If they can beat the Socceroos, they will be in the race for second place. Against the USA and Türkiye, a draw would be a great result. Paraguay will defend deep, waste time when they are ahead, and try to nick a goal from a set piece.

The danger for the other teams is underestimating Paraguay. They are not pretty to watch, but they are very hard to beat, and in a group where every point matters, a draw against Paraguay could be the difference between qualifying and going home.

Prediction

Our prediction: USA first, Türkiye second, Australia third with a chance of going through as one of the best third-placed teams, Paraguay last. But this is the most unpredictable group in the tournament, and any of the four teams could finish in the top two.

The USA should win the group, but they will need to be at their best. Türkiye have the quality to top the group themselves, Australia have the experience to grind out results, and Paraguay have the physicality to upset anyone. Group D will be decided on the final day, and it could come down to goal difference.