Group F of World Cup 2026 is the group where every match can change the table. The Netherlands start as favourites, but Japan, Sweden and Tunisia are three teams that know how to trouble anyone. It is the perfect group for fans who love surprises: second place could be decided on the final matchday, and even the third-placed team could have a good chance of advancing under the new format. For all four teams, every game will feel like a final, and one early mistake could cost a place in the knockouts.

The four teams in Group F

The Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia bring four completely different styles of play. The Netherlands have the strongest squad in the group, with Virgil van Dijk leading the defence and an attack full of options. Japan are the most organised and disciplined team in the tournament: they run, press and never give up, as they showed by beating Germany and Spain in 2022. Sweden came through the playoffs, with Viktor Gyokeres as their attacking spearhead and a tradition of teams that are hard to beat. Tunisia are the outsiders: a compact defence, counter-attacks and passionate fans who follow them everywhere.

The Netherlands, favourites with a score to settle

The Netherlands have everything they need to win the group, but also a history of disappointments to erase. The Oranje have never won a World Cup despite three lost finals, and they arrive in North America with a mature generation: Van Dijk at the back, Frenkie de Jong in midfield and an attack that can change games. The weak point is managing blocked games: the Netherlands create a lot but sometimes waste too much, and in such a balanced group one draw too many can cost first place.

Japan and Sweden, the two threats

Japan are the team no favourite wants to meet. In 2022 they beat Germany and Spain in the same group, playing modern, fast and brave football. The Japanese have a squad full of players in Europe and a coach who prepares every match down to the smallest detail. Sweden, for their part, are back at the World Cup through the playoffs and have in Gyokeres a striker who scores with impressive consistency. The Swedes are physical, organised and dangerous from set pieces.

Tunisia and the lesson of 2022

Tunisia beat France in 2022 and came close to qualifying: they are a team that know how to prepare one-off games. They defend deep and compact, break at speed and have a goalkeeper who is often decisive. In a group where the other three teams will have to attack, Tunisia can exploit the spaces and steal heavy points. They are not the favourites, but they are the team that can ruin everyone's plans.

The decisive matches

Netherlands against Japan is the match that could decide first place, but one early slip could prove costly. Sweden against Tunisia will be a physical and tactical clash, where Sweden must show they can break down a closed defence. Japan against Sweden, finally, is the game that could decide second place: two teams with similar ambitions and opposite styles. In a group like this, every point counts double.

Prediction: who advances?

The Netherlands should win the group, but it will not be a stroll. Second place is an open duel between Japan and Sweden: the Japanese have more organisation, the Swedes more physicality and a decisive striker. Tunisia can finish third and hope for the repechage. Our prediction: Netherlands first, Japan second, Sweden third with a good chance of going through among the best third-placed teams.