Group I is the toughest group at World Cup 2026. France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq: four teams with quality, history and ambition, all capable of beating anyone on their day. France, led by Kylian Mbappé, are the favourites, but Norway, with Erling Haaland, are the dark horses of the whole tournament, and Senegal are no pushovers either.

The most anticipated match is France against Norway, on the final day of the group. Mbappé against Haaland, the two best strikers in the world, in a game that could decide first place. But before that, both teams will have to deal with Senegal and Iraq, two sides that will give nothing away.

France: the team to beat

France arrive at the World Cup as runners-up from 2022 and as one of the favourites to win the whole tournament. Didier Deschamps has a deep and talented squad: Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise and Hugo Ekitike in attack, with Mike Maignan in goal. In European qualifying, the French were unbeaten and looked impressively solid.

The big question is the tactical transition. Deschamps is moving from a pragmatic structure to a more attacking side that leans on the individual brilliance of its stars. If it works, France can win the tournament. If the team loses its balance, the group could become complicated.

France should win the group, but it will not be a walk in the park. Norway and Senegal are strong opponents, and Iraq have shown they know how to suffer. The French advantage is squad depth: they can change a game from the bench, a luxury the other teams in the group do not have.

Norway: Haaland changes everything

Norway are the most exciting surprise of the World Cup. The Scandinavians had not played at a World Cup since 1998, but this generation is special: Erling Haaland scored 16 goals in qualifying, Martin Odegaard dictates the tempo in midfield, and the team won all eight qualifying matches, beating Italy twice along the way.

Haaland is the player who can change the tournament. The Manchester City striker is the most lethal finisher in world football, and in a group where every goal counts, his presence makes Norway dangerous against anyone. The problem is dependence: if Haaland is stopped, Norway struggle to find other routes to goal.

The schedule, though, is kind to the Norwegians. They face Senegal on matchday one, a winnable game, and then Iraq. If they reach the France game with six points, they can play for first place without pressure. And with Haaland on the pitch, anything is possible.

Senegal and Iraq

Senegal are the third force in the group. The African champions have a physical and technical squad, with players starring in Europe's best leagues. They reached the Africa Cup of Nations final and are used to playing high-intensity games. Against France and Norway, Senegal can aim for a draw and then play everything against Iraq.

Iraq, meanwhile, are the least fancied team in the group, but they should not be underestimated. The Iraqis qualified with a solid campaign and arrive at the World Cup with an organised, motivated side. Their aim is to take points from Senegal and, maybe, steal a surprise draw against one of the two favourites.

For both teams, matchday one is key. Senegal against Norway and France against Iraq will open the group, and the results will say a lot about how the group will end. If Senegal beat Norway, the group becomes wide open.

Prediction

France against Norway, on the final day of the group, is the game everyone is waiting for. Mbappé against Haaland, two strikers worth more than 300 million euros combined, in a match that could decide first place and, with it, the path to the Round of 32.

France have more overall quality, Norway have the best finisher in the world. It should be an open game, with goals and chances at both ends. Our prediction: France first, Norway second, Senegal third with a chance of going through as one of the best third-placed teams, Iraq last.